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The Strait of Hormuz's transportation has come to a standstill, and the global energy and chemical supply chain is facing a severe test.
Release time:
2026-03-10
The transportation of energy products through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a de facto standstill, with energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran also coming under attack……
The transportation of energy products through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a de facto standstill, with energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran also coming under attack. This has led to a 10% surge in Brent crude oil prices to over $80 per barrel on March 2, and Asian spot LNG prices face a risk of a 130% surge.
The shipping halt poses significant difficulties for transporting energy and chemical products. On March 1, a 7,600-ton dual-purpose oil and chemical tanker was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz's narrowest point. Data from Marine Traffic shows that at least 200 vessels are currently anchored and not sailing.
Financial institutions like Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and Wood Mackenzie have made price forecasts. If 50% of the Strait of Hormuz's flow is interrupted for one month, oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel, and Asian spot LNG could reach $25 per MMBtu.
The conflict is escalating risks. The threat of attacks by Iranian drones or missiles has forced preventive shutdowns at Iraqi oil fields. Qatar Energy has halted LNG and related product production. On March 2, Saudi Aramco shut down its Ras Tanura refinery.
Surging oil and gas prices are transmitting to downstream chemical industries, initiating a chain reaction of cost impacts. Naphtha-based cracking units are the first to be affected. Rising LNG prices are pushing up production costs for gas-based chemical products in Europe, impacting Asian buyers.
The cost transmission has two paths: one directly pushing up prices of basic chemicals like olefins and aromatics; the other potentially causing reductions in operating rates and capacity shutdowns if downstream demand cannot absorb the high costs. Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, European chemical companies significantly cut production due to soaring gas prices. If the shipping halt in the Strait of Hormuz persists, Asian buyers' dependence on Qatari LNG will need reassessment.
Qatar's expanding North Field project is seen as a primary source of global LNG supply growth for the next decade. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens 20% of global LNG supply, posing a severe challenge to Asian economies undergoing energy transition.
Iran is the world's second-largest methanol producer, with an annual output of 9-10 million tons, of which over 80% is exported. Industry analysis indicates the conflict may accelerate the draw down of methanol port inventories in China, potentially triggering a new round of price increases driven by supply-side factors.
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